Irinotecan, Capecitabine and Avastin for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer as Salvage Treatment
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2012-12-31, after 2008-04-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticcolorectalmelanomadisease
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thethe efficacyopendaysaccording -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 72 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 72 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 33.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14315 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4732 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, capecitabine, irinotecan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase II Study of Avastin + Erbitux + Irinotecan as 2nd Line Treatment of Colorectal Cancer NCT00681876 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
- A Multicenter, Clinical Study of FOLFOXIRI With Bevacizumab As First-line Therapy in Patients With mCRC NCT02246049 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Lohp, 5-Fu/Lv and Bevacizumab, Alternative With Cpt-11, 5-Fu/Lv and Cetuximab In Metastatic Crc NCT00755118 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy of FOLFOX+Bevacizumab in Combination With Irinotecan in the Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01321957 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Phase III Study of 2nd-line XELIRI ± Bevacizumab vs. FOLFIRI ± Bevacizumab in mCRC NCT01996306 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.