A Continuation Trial for Subjects With Lupus Who Completed Protocol HGS1006-C1056 in the United States

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectscompletedprotocolsubjectlong term
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesto evaluateevaluate thetrialefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Continuation Trial for Subjects With Lupus That Completed Protocol HGS1006-C1056 or HGS1006-C1057 NCT00712933 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of Belimumab Administered Subcutaneously to Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT00732940 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• BEL114333, a Continuation Study of BEL113750 in Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) in Northeast Asia, and in Japan Subjects Completing the Open-label Extension of HGS1006-C1115 NCT01597622 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• A Study of Belimumab Administered Subcutaneously in Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT01484496 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Belimumab Treatment Holiday and Treatment Re-start Study in Lupus Patients NCT02119156 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.