Belimumab Treatment Holiday and Treatment Re-start Study in Lupus Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsstablethe subjectacuteassess
  Phrases that lowered it: dayeffect ofthe effectkgdiseases
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 48.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1950 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 320 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2 Study of Belimumab Administered Subcutaneously to Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT00732940 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• A Continuation Trial for Subjects With Lupus Who Completed Protocol HGS1006-C1056 in the United States NCT00724867 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Continuation Trial for Subjects With Lupus That Completed Protocol HGS1006-C1056 or HGS1006-C1057 NCT00712933 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• A Study of Belimumab in Chinese Pediatric Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05917288 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study of Belimumab Administered Subcutaneously in Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT01484496 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.