A Study of Belimumab in Chinese Pediatric Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-10-30, after 2023-07-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 42.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 2739 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: greaterhepatitissleequal tolupus
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsand safetysafety ofdiseases -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 5 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 17 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2739 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 86 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 19872 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3296 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 42.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- belimumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pediatric Lupus Trial of Belimumab Plus Background Standard Therapy NCT01649765 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Phase 2 Study of Belimumab Administered Subcutaneously to Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT00732940 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
- Belimumab Phase I Study in Chinese Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02880852 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- A Study of Telitacicept in Subjects With Childhood-onset Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05687526 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Belimumab Administered in Combination With Rituximab to Adult Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) - BLISS-BELIEVE NCT03312907 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.