Phase I Imaging Study Evaluating Dalotuzumab (MK0646) in Combination With Erlotinib for Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-0646-008)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancercell lungsmall cellnon smalltumor
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatestudy willfemaledrugs orof age
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 500 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 286 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AZD9291 First Time In Patients Ascending Dose Study NCT01802632 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating Dalotuzumab (MK-0646) in Combination With Erlotinib for Participants With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-0646-007) NCT00654420 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety and Efficacy of EGFR-TKI EGF816 in Combination With cMET Inhibitor INC280 in Adult Patients With EGFR Mutated Non Small Cell Lung Cancer. NCT02335944 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• MK2206 and Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Progressed After Previous Response to Erlotinib Hydrochloride Therapy NCT01294306 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study of AZD9291 Plus MEDI4736 Versus AZD9291 Monotherapy in NSCLC After Previous EGFR TKI Therapy in T790M Mutation Positive Tumours NCT02454933 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.