Pemetrexed and Radiation for Poor-Risk Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 40% for any early termination, 32% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungradiationsmallmetastaticstage
  Phrases that lowered it: tolerabilityadministration ofprotocolprecedingjudged by
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 75% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1782 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Pemetrexed and Cisplatin, in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01000480 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Alimta® Versus Its Combination With Carboplatin in Advanced Non-small-cell Lung Cancer in Patients Performance Status 2 NCT01836575 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• MK-0646 Insulin Growth Factor 1 Receptor Antibody in Stage IIIb or IV Metastatic Non-Squamous Lung Cancer NCT00799240 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Preoperative Pemetrexed and Carboplatin for Select Stage IB, II, and III Non-Squamous Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT00906282 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Pemetrexed and Platinum Use in the Neoadjuvant Setting for Resectable Stage II and IIIA Lung Adenocarcinoma (ECTOP-1002) NCT02980991 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.