Pemetrexed and Platinum Use in the Neoadjuvant Setting for Resectable Stage II and IIIA Lung Adenocarcinoma (ECTOP-1002)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientconcurrentadenocarcinomastagelong
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofclinical trialevaluate theto evaluateopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 36366 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 44 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Preoperative Pemetrexed and Carboplatin for Select Stage IB, II, and III Non-Squamous Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT00906282 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pemetrexed and Cisplatin, in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01000480 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pemetrexed/Cisplatin as Pre-operative Treatment of Early Stage Nonsquamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01165021 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Study of Pemetrexed Versus Gefitinib in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Previously Received Platinum-Based Chemotherapy Without Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT00891579 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Pemetrexed and Radiation for Poor-Risk Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00732303 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.