Study of Pemetrexed Versus Gefitinib in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Previously Received Platinum-Based Chemotherapy Without Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationchemotherapynsclccell lunglung cancer
  Phrases that lowered it: days beforethe treatmentlesionsdexamethasoneopen label
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pemetrexed or Docetaxel With or Without Erlotinib in Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00660816 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Study of Induction and Maintenance Treatment of Advanced or Metastatic Non Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00867009 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pemetrexed and Gefitinib Versus Gefitinib in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT01469000 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study of Pemetrexed+Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With First Line Metastatic Nonsquamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-189/KEYNOTE-189) NCT02578680 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Trial of Poor Performance Status Patients (ToPPS) NCT00892710 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.