A Study of Pemetrexed and Gefitinib Versus Gefitinib in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: squamouscellradiationstageuln
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsdays beforediseasestrial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 203 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 636 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 1529 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01232452 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Lenvatinib in Combination With Carboplatin Pemetrexed and Pembrolizumab for NSCLC With EGFR Mutations NCT05258279 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pemetrexed and Bevacizumab for Participants With Advanced Non-Small Cell Cancer NCT01004250 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Study of Pemetrexed Versus Gefitinib in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Have Previously Received Platinum-Based Chemotherapy Without Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT00891579 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Pazopanib in Comparison to Pemetrexed in Maintenance Setting in Non-progressing Subjects With Metastatic Stage IVA and IVB Non-squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Population NCT01313663 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.