A Study in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal tocancerstagesmall
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantscarcinomareceivedjudged
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 194 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 545 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Pemetrexed and Gefitinib Versus Gefitinib in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT01469000 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• TAS-102 in Previously Treated Unresectable or Metastatic Squamous Cell Lung Carcinoma (UF-STO-LUNG-003) NCT02920476 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Efficacy Comparison of Dostarlimab Plus Chemotherapy Versus Pembrolizumab Plus Chemotherapy in Participants With Metastatic Non-squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT04581824 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Biomarkers of Response to Pembrolizumab Combined With Chemotherapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (KEYNOTE-782, MK-3475-782) NCT03664024 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Study of Pemetrexed+Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Cosibelimab in First Line Metastatic Non-squamous NSCLC NCT04786964 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.