Single-dose Crossover Study to Investigate Pharmacodynamics of AZD3199

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsiiposttreatment withobstruction
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmarelevantsingleto investigateany clinically
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 267 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 448 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Investigation of Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Once and Twice Daily Doses of AZD1981 in Asthmatic Patients NCT01197794 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• The Study Will Evaluate the Efficacy of AZD5423 in Patients With Mild Asthma Challenged With an Inhaled Allergen NCT01225549 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study in Healthy Subjects and Mild Asthmatics to Investigate Pharmacokinetics of AZD5423 When Administered in Different Ways NCT01310322 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Pharmacokinetics and the Pharmacodynamics of Different Dry Powder Inhalation Formulations of AZD3199 in Patients With Asthma NCT01348139 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• The Tolerability and Effects of AZD8848 in Allergic Asthma Subjects Challenged With Inhaled Allergen NCT00999466 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.