Investigation of Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Once and Twice Daily Doses of AZD1981 in Asthmatic Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: womenpatientmonthsplacebo controlledblind placebo
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmarespiratoryefficacyfev1tolerability of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 343 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 884 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Tolerability and Effects of AZD8848 in Allergic Asthma Subjects Challenged With Inhaled Allergen NCT00999466 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Single-dose Crossover Study to Investigate Pharmacodynamics of AZD3199 NCT00736489 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• One Month Dose Response Study of AZD1981 in Asthma Patients Uncontrolled on Inhaled Steroids NCT00758589 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• The Study Will Evaluate the Efficacy of AZD5423 in Patients With Mild Asthma Challenged With an Inhaled Allergen NCT01225549 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AZD5069 in Patients With Uncontrolled Persistent Asthma. NCT01704495 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.