Pemetrexed Disodium or Erlotinib Hydrochloride as Second-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (37 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2014-12-31, after 2008-10-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcancerradiationcarcinomasmall
Phrases that lowered it: solidaminotransferaseimmunotherapyimpairmentopen -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 257 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 242 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 257 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 242 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2248 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 585 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib, glutamic acid, pemetrexed
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- S1300: Pemetrexed Disodium With or Without Crizotinib in Treating Patients With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer That Has Progressed After Crizotinib NCT02134912 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
- Phase II Avastin Trial for Stage IIIB/IV NSCLC NCT00766246 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Pembrolizumab, Combination Chemotherapy, and Radiation Therapy Before Surgery in Treating Adult Patients With Locally Advanced Gastroesophageal Junction or Gastric Cardia Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT02730546 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab, Cabozantinib S-Malate, and Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Recurrent Stage IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03468985 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab and Concurrent Radiation in Patients With Previously Treated Carcinoma of Unknown Primary NCT03396471 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.