Phase II Avastin Trial for Stage IIIB/IV NSCLC
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 38% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2012-04-30, after 2008-10-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mg dlradiationbevacizumabto registrationcell
Phrases that lowered it: open labellargelesionshepaticsevere -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4667 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 100% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16601 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4667 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bevacizumab, carboplatin, docetaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- BIBF 1120 + Docetaxel (Japan) in Patients With Advanced Non-small-cell Lung Cancer, Phase I NCT00876460 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Pemetrexed Disodium or Erlotinib Hydrochloride as Second-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00738881 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
- Binimetinib in Addition to Standard Chemotherapy in KRAS Mutated NSCLC. NCT02964689 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Bevacizumab, Pemetrexed Disodium, and Cisplatin or Erlotinib Hydrochloride and Bevacizumab in Treating Patients With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer. A Multicenter Phase II Trial Including Biopsy at Progression (BIO-PRO Trial). NCT01116219 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Trial of Poor Performance Status Patients (ToPPS) NCT00892710 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.