Effect of ARC1779 on Cerebral Microembolism in Patients Undergoing Carotid Endarterectomy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stroketo determineto randomizationpurpose ofthe purpose
  Phrases that lowered it: patientssafety ofevaluate thepartnerthe effect
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Carotid and Middle Cerebral Artery Occlusion Surgery Study NCT01758614 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Evaluation Study of Early Administration of Evolocumab After Thrombolysis in Patients With Atherosclerotic Acute Ischemic Stroke NCT07301372 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Combination Antithrombotic Treatment for Prevention of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke in Intracranial Atherosclerotic Disease NCT04142125 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Intraarterial Alteplase Versus Placebo After Mechanical Thrombectomy NCT03876119 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Revacept in Symptomatic Carotid Stenosis NCT01645306 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.