The Carotid and Middle Cerebral Artery Occlusion Surgery Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: surgerystagearteryctimaging
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgand safetyefficacy andsafety ofblood
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 160258 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 22780 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• NeuroCognition After Carotid Recanalization NCT04219774 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• China Angioplasty & Stenting for Symptomatic Intracranial Severe Stenosis NCT01763320 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Effect of ARC1779 on Cerebral Microembolism in Patients Undergoing Carotid Endarterectomy NCT00742612 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation Study of Early Administration of Evolocumab After Thrombolysis in Patients With Atherosclerotic Acute Ischemic Stroke NCT07301372 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• VISSIT Intracranial Stent Study for Ischemic Therapy NCT00816166 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.