Panitumumab, Docetaxel, Cisplatin, Radiation Therapy, and Surgery in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed, Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer or Cancer of the Gastroesophageal Junction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: surgerycancerstageblocktype
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmgdlproducttumors
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 122 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cisplatin and 5-FU +/- Panitumumab for Patients With Nonresectable,Advanced or Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer NCT01627379 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Panitumumab, Combination Chemotherapy, & Radiation Therapy in Esophageal or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer NCT01307956 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Paclitaxel, Cisplatin, and Radiation Therapy With or Without Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT00655876 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Radio-chemotherapy With or Without Panitumumab (Vectibix®) in Irresectable Squamous Cell Carcinoma or Adenocarcinoma of the Oesophagus NCT01262183 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Chemoradiation and Panitumumab for Esophageal Cancer NCT01077999 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.