Chemoradiation and Panitumumab for Esophageal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-04-30, after 2010-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancermalignancyheartpatients mustsquamous cell
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate themaleor femaleinadequateesophageal -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 14564 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3093 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carboplatin, paclitaxel, panitumumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Panitumumab, Docetaxel, Cisplatin, Radiation Therapy, and Surgery in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed, Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer or Cancer of the Gastroesophageal Junction NCT00757172 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Cisplatin and 5-FU +/- Panitumumab for Patients With Nonresectable,Advanced or Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Cancer NCT01627379 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
- Trial of Panitumumab/Cisplatin/Fluorouracil Combined With Radiation in Esophageal Cancer NCT01128387 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Panitumumab, Combination Chemotherapy, & Radiation Therapy in Esophageal or Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer NCT01307956 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Phase II Study of Irinotecan and Panitumumab NCT00836277 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.