Lapatinib in Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Failed Prior Antihormone Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 38% for any early termination, 22% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerstagereceptorcardiactherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: mm3countnormalgoodcombination
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Allocation: not applicable (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1850 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Targeting the PAM50 Her2-Enriched Phenotype With Enzalutamide in Hormone Receptor-Positive/Her2-Negative Metastatic BC NCT04142060 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• PhIb BKM120 or BEZ235+Endocrine Treatment in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor + Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01248494 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Lapatinib + Vinorelbine in ErbB2 Overexpressing, First or Second Line Metastatic Breast Cancer Subjects NCT00709618 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Ph II Study of Pembrolizumab & Eribulin in Patients With HR+/HER2- MBC Previously Treated With Anthracyclines & Taxanes NCT03222856 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Endocrine Therapy + OSI-906 With or Without Erlotinib for Hormone-Sensitive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01205685 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.