Endocrine Therapy + OSI-906 With or Without Erlotinib for Hormone-Sensitive Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 45% for any early termination, 22% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustcancerlungbreastmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: livereceivedrugsprevioustrial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 42.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 26 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• BYL719 and Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01791478 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• PhIb BKM120 or BEZ235+Endocrine Treatment in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor + Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01248494 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Lasofoxifene Combined With Abemaciclib in Advanced or Metastatic ER+/HER2- Breast Cancer With an ESR1 Mutation NCT04432454 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Study of AZD2014 and Palbociclib in Patients With Estrogen Receptor Positive (ER+) Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02599714 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Olaparib+Trastuzumab in HER2[+],Breast Cancer Susceptibility Gene (BRCA) Mutated Advanced Breast Cancer NCT03931551 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.