BYL719 and Letrozole in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 32% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-10-06, after 2013-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breast cancerpatients mustventricularmetastatic breastheart
Phrases that lowered it: patients whoclinicaltrialendocrinefixed -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 41.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 43 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 41.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5828 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1082 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alpelisib, letrozole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- PhIb BKM120 or BEZ235+Endocrine Treatment in Post-Menopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor + Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01248494 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Endocrine Therapy + OSI-906 With or Without Erlotinib for Hormone-Sensitive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01205685 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- BYL719 Plus Letrozole or Exemestane for Patients With Hormone-Receptor Positive Locally-Advanced Unresectable or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01870505 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- BYL719 and Nab-Paclitaxel in Locally Recurrent or Metastatic HER-2 Negative Breast Cancer NCT02379247 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- PIPA: Combination of PI3 Kinase Inhibitors and PAlbociclib NCT02389842 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.