BYL719 and Nab-Paclitaxel in Locally Recurrent or Metastatic HER-2 Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 36% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerstagelongsubjects within subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: normalendocrinescreeninginvestigatorblood
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Lapatinib Plus Nab-Paclitaxel As First And Second Line Therapy In her2+ MBC NCT00709761 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Lapatinib + Vinorelbine in ErbB2 Overexpressing, First or Second Line Metastatic Breast Cancer Subjects NCT00709618 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• The BURAN Study of Buparlisib in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic HNSCC NCT04338399 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib in Combination With Tamoxifen as First Line Therapy for Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive Breast Cancer NCT02668666 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Veliparib, Cisplatin, and Vinorelbine Ditartrate in Treating Patients With Recurrent and/or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01104259 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.