Phase II Lapatinib Plus Nab-Paclitaxel As First And Second Line Therapy In her2+ MBC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsmetastaticsubjectbreast cancerbowel
  Phrases that lowered it: labelweekweeksconsiderationsresponse
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lapatinib + Vinorelbine in ErbB2 Overexpressing, First or Second Line Metastatic Breast Cancer Subjects NCT00709618 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• BYL719 and Nab-Paclitaxel in Locally Recurrent or Metastatic HER-2 Negative Breast Cancer NCT02379247 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Tucatinib, Palbociclib and Letrozole in Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive and HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT03054363 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Lapatinib + Vinorelbine in ErbB2 Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients NCT01161368 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Phase I/II Study of Lapatinib in Combination With Paclitaxel as 1L Chemotherapy for ErbB2-positive MBC NCT01138046 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.