Tucatinib, Palbociclib and Letrozole in Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive and HER2-positive Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-02-07, after 2017-11-27 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectdose ofventricularstablecare
Phrases that lowered it: womenbreast cancerinhibitorovarianhcv -
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 118 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 314 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 12 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 314 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.9%
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 118 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 31698 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11572 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 61.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- letrozole, palbociclib, tucatinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of the Combination of Trastuzumab Plus TUCAtinib Plus viNorelbine in Patients With HER2-positive Non-resectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT05583110 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
- Phase II Lapatinib Plus Nab-Paclitaxel As First And Second Line Therapy In her2+ MBC NCT00709761 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Lapatinib + Vinorelbine in ErbB2 Overexpressing, First or Second Line Metastatic Breast Cancer Subjects NCT00709618 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
- Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab and Gemcitabine in HER2-negative ABC NCT03025880 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- BYL719 and Nab-Paclitaxel in Locally Recurrent or Metastatic HER-2 Negative Breast Cancer NCT02379247 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.