Study of AZD2014 and Palbociclib in Patients With Estrogen Receptor Positive (ER+) Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerpatientmetastatic breastdouble blindreceptor positive
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsbleedingpulmonaryrenalliver
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 186 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1342 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PIPA: Combination of PI3 Kinase Inhibitors and PAlbociclib NCT02389842 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Endocrine Therapy + OSI-906 With or Without Erlotinib for Hormone-Sensitive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01205685 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Olaparib+Trastuzumab in HER2[+],Breast Cancer Susceptibility Gene (BRCA) Mutated Advanced Breast Cancer NCT03931551 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Tamoxifen as Treatment for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02384239 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Study of Foretinib in Combination With Lapatinib in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01138384 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.