Comparison of Zometa Retention and Effect in Multiple Myeloma and Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bonemetastasescancerpatients mustchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomamultiplestudyaciddays before
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 872 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Zoledronic Acid in Treating Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer, Metastatic Prostate Cancer, or Multiple Myeloma With Bone Involvement NCT00869206 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Suppression of Bone Turnover Following Treatment With Zoledronic Acid in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer: Duration of Effect NCT01344967 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Zoledronic Acid and Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed Metastatic Osteosarcoma NCT00742924 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Denosumab Compared to Zoledronic Acid in the Treatment of Bone Disease in Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01345019 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• A Trial Evaluating the Effects of Zoledronic Acid 5 mg Infusion on Bone Mineral Density (BMD) in Postmenopausal Osteoporosis (PMO) Patients Between the Ages of 50 and 65 Years NCT00909961 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.