Suppression of Bone Turnover Following Treatment With Zoledronic Acid in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer: Duration of Effect

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancerpainacutemri
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancertrialmetastatic breastnormal rangereceive
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 60 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 60 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Zoledronic Acid in Treating Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer, Metastatic Prostate Cancer, or Multiple Myeloma With Bone Involvement NCT00869206 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Study of Zoledronic Acid Versus Observation on Bone Mineral Density and Incidence of Micrometastasis in Women Undergoing Pelvic Radiation for Cervical Cancer NCT00966992 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Comparison of Zometa Retention and Effect in Multiple Myeloma and Breast Cancer NCT00760370 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Zoledronic Acid in Aromatase Inhibitor Induced Musculoskeletal Symptoms NCT01194440 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Denosumab for Breast Cancer With Bone Mets NCT01952054 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.