A Phase I Study to Assess Novel Cream in a Psoriasis Plaque Test
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (139 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2008-03-07, after 2008-02-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-03-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientheartstableevidencehg
Phrases that lowered it: psoriasissubjectsvulgaristopicalthe study -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 246 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- not given (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 360 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 246 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 743 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 195 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- betamethasone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- AN2728 Topical Ointment to Treat Mild-to-Moderate Plaque-Type Psoriasis NCT01300052 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of A Novel Ointment to Treat Plaque Type Psoriasis NCT00755196 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- A 12-Day Randomized, Blinded, Vehicle and Active Comparator-Controlled Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of Six Concentrations of Topical E6201 Gel in Subjects With Psoriasis Vulgaris NCT01268527 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of a Novel Ointment to Treat Plaque Type Psoriasis NCT01029405 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Tolerability of LAS41004 Formulations in a Non-occlusive Psoriasis Plaque Test NCT01462643 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.