AN2728 Topical Ointment to Treat Mild-to-Moderate Plaque-Type Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: concurrentapplypatientsdetermine whethereffective
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalpsoriasisplaquevehicleface
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 401 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 875 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of A Novel Ointment to Treat Plaque Type Psoriasis NCT00755196 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of a Novel Ointment to Treat Plaque Type Psoriasis NCT01029405 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study to Assess Novel Cream in a Psoriasis Plaque Test NCT00763204 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of Efficacy and Safety of AK101 in Subjects With Psoriasis NCT05120297 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A 12-Day Randomized, Blinded, Vehicle and Active Comparator-Controlled Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of Six Concentrations of Topical E6201 Gel in Subjects With Psoriasis Vulgaris NCT01268527 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.