A Study for Patient With Chronic Low Back Pain
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2009-07-31, after 2008-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chroniccardiovascular hepaticinjurycirrhosisto determine
Phrases that lowered it: effect ofmalebodyrespiratorymass index -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 163 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- not given (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 339 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 163 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12329 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2669 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 50.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- duloxetine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Duloxetine (LY248686) in Participants With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT01855919 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- A Six Week Study Of The Pain Relieving Effects Of Celecoxib 200 Mg Twice Daily Compared To Tramadol 50 Mg Four Times Daily In Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT00662558 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- An Open Label Extension Study of Duloxetine (LY248686) in Participants With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT01914666 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- A Study of Duloxetine in Patients With Osteoarthritis Knee Pain NCT00945945 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Diazepam Use With Standard Management for Acute Low Back Pain NCT02646124 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.