Diazepam Use With Standard Management for Acute Low Back Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painacutehoursrisk ofadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmainfluenzavisitallergicmedication
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 86066 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17549 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 69 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ibuprofen With or Without Acetaminophen for Low Back Pain NCT03554018 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• A Two-Arm Study Comparing the Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of Acetaminophen and Tramadol Combination BID Versus Placebo for the Treatment of Acute Low Back Pain NCT00643383 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Ibuprofen/Caffeine Lower Back or Neck Pain Study NCT03003000 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study for Patient With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT00767806 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Dose-ranging Study of the Safety and Effectiveness of JNJ-42160443 as add-on Treatment in Patients With Low Back Pain NCT00973024 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.