Ibuprofen With or Without Acetaminophen for Low Back Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painlow backacutediagnosisnon
  Phrases that lowered it: participantspatientsinfluenzaovarianallergic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 48 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 530560 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 104746 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 127 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Diazepam Use With Standard Management for Acute Low Back Pain NCT02646124 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of S (+) - Ibuprofen in the Treatment of Mechanical Low Back Pain NCT04772781 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Ibuprofen/Caffeine Lower Back or Neck Pain Study NCT03003000 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Ibuprofen Versus Acetaminophen vs Their Combination in the Relief of Musculoskeletal Pain in the Emergency Setting NCT01827475 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Six Week Study Of The Pain Relieving Effects Of Celecoxib 200 Mg Twice Daily Compared To Tramadol 50 Mg Four Times Daily In Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT00662558 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.