Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Oral Lenvatinib in Medullary and Iodine-131 Refractory, Unresectable Differentiated Thyroid Cancers, Stratified by Histology
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-03-29, after 2008-11-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancermrigreaterevidence ofct
Phrases that lowered it: participantsefficacyto evaluateevaluate thesafety -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 65 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 50 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lenvatinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Trial of Lenvatinib (E7080) in 131I-Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer (DTC) NCT01321554 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- An Open-label, Multicenter, Phase II Study of Dovitinib in Advanced Thyroid Cancer NCT01964144 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- A Trial of Lenvatinib (E7080) in Radioiodine (131 I)-Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer in China NCT02966093 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Sorafenib Phase II Study for Japanese Anaplastic or Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients NCT02114658 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Lenvatinib for Anaplastic Thyroid Cancer NCT02726503 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.