Sorafenib Phase II Study for Japanese Anaplastic or Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-08-02, after 2014-04-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 99 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 506 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomacancersignificantbiopsythyroid
Phrases that lowered it: japaneseefficacy andpharmacokineticsadvanced orsingle -
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 506 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 99 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9566 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 918 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nexavar® Versus Placebo in Locally Advanced/Metastatic RAI-Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer NCT00984282 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Oral Lenvatinib in Medullary and Iodine-131 Refractory, Unresectable Differentiated Thyroid Cancers, Stratified by Histology NCT00784303 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of Vandetanib in Japanese Patients With Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma NCT01661179 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- A Study of Vemurafenib (RO5185426) in Participants With Metastatic or Unresectable Papillary Thyroid Cancer Positive for the BRAF V600 Mutation NCT01286753 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Study of Apatinib in Patients With Differentiated Thyroid Cancer NCT02731352 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.