QUILT-2.013: First-Line Treatment for Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancercell lungsmall cellcombination within combination
  Phrases that lowered it: trialgroupmulticenterevaluateopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 19205 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2, Open-Label Study of Amuvatinib in Combination With Platinum-Etoposide Chemotherapy in Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01357395 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1b/2 Study of AMG 655 in Combination With Paclitaxel and Carboplatin for the First-Line Treatment of Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00534027 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• QUILT-2.017: Phase 1b/2 Study of AMG 479 in Combination With Paclitaxel and Carboplatin for 1st Line Treatment of Advanced Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00807612 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• Phase Ib/II Study of M3814 With Etoposide and Cisplatin in Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) Extensive Disease (ED) NCT03116971 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• Phase 1b/2 Trial of AMG386 With Pemetrexed and Carboplatin in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01666977 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.