Phase Ib/II Study of M3814 With Etoposide and Cisplatin in Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) Extensive Disease (ED)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-03-01, after 2017-05-25 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lung cancercell lungsmall cellulnreceiving
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantmultipleefficacyevaluate -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 55360 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7657 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cisplatin, etoposide, peposertib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY2510924 in Participants With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Carcinoma NCT01439568 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- A Phase II, Study to Determine the Preliminary Efficacy of Novel Combinations of Treatment in Patients With Platinum Refractory Extensive-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT02937818 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Phase 3 Study Evaluating Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Trilaciclib In Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT04902885 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1b/2 Study of OMP-59R5 (Tarextumab) in Combination With Etoposide and Platinum Therapy NCT01859741 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
- M7824 and Topotecan or Temozolomide in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancers NCT03554473 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.