A Study of LY2510924 in Participants With Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-08-31, after 2011-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagecarboplatincancercell lungsmall cell
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanttrialprostateto compare -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 211 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 591 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 591 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 211 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 20551 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3909 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carboplatin, etoposide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY2940680 in Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01722292 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
- A Study for Participants With Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT01025284 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- A Study in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01139775 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY2624587 in Patients With Advanced Cancer NCT01139788 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Phase Ib/II Study of M3814 With Etoposide and Cisplatin in Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) Extensive Disease (ED) NCT03116971 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.