Phase 3 Study Evaluating Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Trilaciclib In Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerstagecell lungsmall cellmetastases
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyaminotransferasepharmacokineticsmulti centerthe investigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 121228 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16163 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Carboplatin, Etoposide, and Atezolizumab With or Without Trilaciclib (G1T28), a CDK4/6 Inhibitor, in Extensive-Stage SCLC NCT03041311 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Trilaciclib (G1T28), a CDK 4/6 Inhibitor, in Combination With Etoposide and Carboplatin in Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) NCT02499770 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Berzosertib + Topotecan in Relapsed Platinum-Resistant Small-Cell Lung Cancer (DDRiver SCLC 250) NCT04768296 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib/II Study of M3814 With Etoposide and Cisplatin in Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) Extensive Disease (ED) NCT03116971 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1b/2 Study of OMP-59R5 (Tarextumab) in Combination With Etoposide and Platinum Therapy NCT01859741 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.