Berzosertib + Topotecan in Relapsed Platinum-Resistant Small-Cell Lung Cancer (DDRiver SCLC 250)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 37% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equal toor equalcell lungsmall cellcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: participantspharmacokineticssafetyrun inhypertension
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 41.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4939 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 477 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Combination With Etoposide/Platinum (Cisplatin or Carboplatin) for Participants With Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-604/KEYNOTE-604) NCT03066778 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study Evaluating Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Trilaciclib In Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT04902885 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• SGI-110 Plus Durvalumab/Tremelimumab in SCLC NCT03085849 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• A Phase II, Study to Determine the Preliminary Efficacy of Novel Combinations of Treatment in Patients With Platinum Refractory Extensive-Stage Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT02937818 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• SAR408701 Versus Docetaxel in Previously Treated, Carcinoembryonic Antigen-related Cell Adhesion Molecule 5 (CEACAM5) Positive Metastatic Non-squamous Non-small-cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT04154956 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.