The Efficacy and Safety of Curcuma Domestica Extracts and Ibuprofen in Knee Osteoarthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (44 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-10-31, after 2008-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: or equalequal tolungraycontrolled
Phrases that lowered it: kneeosteoarthritispaineffectasthma -
Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 16 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 28 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 28614 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6668 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- curcumin, ibuprofen
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Traditional Chinese Medicine Formula in the Treatment of Osteoarthritis of Knees or Hips. NCT04110847 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Open-Label Study of Diclofenac Capsules to Treat Osteoarthritis Pain NCT01510912 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Osteoarthritis Topical Treatment NCT01496326 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of IA Verapamil in the Treatment of Joint Pain in Subjects With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT01645709 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated
- Condrosulf vs Celebrex vs Placebo in the Treatment of Knee OA NCT02079727 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.