Targeted Dose Finding of Canakinumab (ACZ885) for Management of Acute Flare in Refractory or Contraindicated Gout Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acuteto determinepresenceevidenceprotocol defined
  Phrases that lowered it: arthritisthe efficacytrial torheumatoidgout
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 177 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 336 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety & Efficacy of Canakinumab (ACZ885) in Patients With Frequent Flares for Whom Nonsterodial Anti-Inflammatory Drug (NSAIDs) and/ or Colchicine Are Contraindicated, Not Tolerated or Ineffective NCT01362608 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• Canakinumab in the Treatment of Acute Gout Flares and Prevention of New Flares in Patients Unable to Use Non-steroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) and/or Colchicines Including a 12 Week Extension and a 1 Year Open-label Extension Study. NCT01080131 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy of Canakinumab in Prevention of Acute Flares in Chronic Gout Patients Initiating Allopurinol Therapy (Core Study) and a Long-term Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Canakinumab in Patients With Gout (Extension Study) NCT00819585 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of a Single Dose of Canakinumab (ACZ885) in Hospitalized Patients With Acute Gout NCT00663169 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Canakinumab in the Treatment of Acute Gout Flares and Prevention of New Flares in Patients Unable to Use Non-steroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) and/or Colchicine Including a 12 Weeks Extension and an Open-label 48 Weeks Extension Study NCT01029652 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.