Canakinumab in the Treatment of Acute Gout Flares and Prevention of New Flares in Patients Unable to Use Non-steroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) and/or Colchicines Including a 12 Week Extension and a 1 Year Open-label Extension Study.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: the purposepurpose oftolerabilityextensionacute
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whopatients withopen labelefficacyanti
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 213 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Canakinumab in the Treatment of Acute Gout Flares and Prevention of New Flares in Patients Unable to Use Non-steroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) and/or Colchicine Including a 12 Weeks Extension and an Open-label 48 Weeks Extension Study NCT01029652 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Long Term Study of Canakinumab (ACZ885) in Patients With Gout NCT00927810 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy of Canakinumab in Prevention of Acute Flares in Chronic Gout Patients Initiating Allopurinol Therapy (Core Study) and a Long-term Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Canakinumab in Patients With Gout (Extension Study) NCT00819585 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Safety & Efficacy of Canakinumab (ACZ885) in Patients With Frequent Flares for Whom Nonsterodial Anti-Inflammatory Drug (NSAIDs) and/ or Colchicine Are Contraindicated, Not Tolerated or Ineffective NCT01362608 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• Targeted Dose Finding of Canakinumab (ACZ885) for Management of Acute Flare in Refractory or Contraindicated Gout Patients NCT00798369 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.