Long Term Study of Canakinumab (ACZ885) in Patients With Gout

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-08-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilityextensionlong termsafetycore
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsvisitserumwomenopen label
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 185 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 170 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Canakinumab in the Treatment of Acute Gout Flares and Prevention of New Flares in Patients Unable to Use Non-steroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) and/or Colchicines Including a 12 Week Extension and a 1 Year Open-label Extension Study. NCT01080131 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Canakinumab in the Treatment of Acute Gout Flares and Prevention of New Flares in Patients Unable to Use Non-steroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs (NSAIDs) and/or Colchicine Including a 12 Weeks Extension and an Open-label 48 Weeks Extension Study NCT01029652 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• β-RELIEVED - REsponse in Acute fLare and In prEVEntion of episoDes of Re-flare in Gout - Extension 3 (E3) NCT01470989 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Efficacy of Canakinumab in Prevention of Acute Flares in Chronic Gout Patients Initiating Allopurinol Therapy (Core Study) and a Long-term Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Canakinumab in Patients With Gout (Extension Study) NCT00819585 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Long-Term Safety and Tolerability of Canakinumab Prefilled Syringes in Frequently Flaring Acute Gouty Arthritis Patients NCT01431638 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.