Pemetrexed, Carboplatin, and Bevacizumab as First-Line Therapy in Treating Older Patients With Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellstagetumorsquamoussince prior
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerefficacy andbevacizumabmellitusbleeding
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 32 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 121 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Alimta® Versus Its Combination With Carboplatin in Advanced Non-small-cell Lung Cancer in Patients Performance Status 2 NCT01836575 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Carboplatin, Pemetrexed Disodium, and Bevacizumab for Patients With Stage III or IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Are Light/Never Smokers NCT01344824 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Trial of Poor Performance Status Patients (ToPPS) NCT00892710 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Trial to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Vinorelbine With Metronomic Administration in Combination With Atezolizumab as Second-line Treatment for Patients With Stage IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03801304 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Bevacizumab or Pemetrexed Disodium Alone or In Combination After Induction Therapy in Treating Patients With Advanced Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01107626 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.