Carboplatin, Pemetrexed Disodium, and Bevacizumab for Patients With Stage III or IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Who Are Light/Never Smokers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-07-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bevacizumabstagecellcancerchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: dayscountaminotransferasegrowthtrial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 21 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 25303 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pemetrexed, Carboplatin, and Bevacizumab as First-Line Therapy in Treating Older Patients With Stage IIIB or Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00798603 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Bevacizumab or Pemetrexed Disodium Alone or In Combination After Induction Therapy in Treating Patients With Advanced Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01107626 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Modulation of Autophagy in Patients With Advanced/Recurrent Non-small Cell Lung Cancer - Phase II NCT01649947 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Trial of Poor Performance Status Patients (ToPPS) NCT00892710 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of Cisplatin + Pemetrexed + Avastin as First-Line Therapy NCT00998166 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.