Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of NKTR-102 in Patients With Metastatic or Locally Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastaticchemotherapypriorpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelarmevaluate theto evaluatemulticenter
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The BEACON Study (Breast Cancer Outcomes With NKTR-102) NCT01492101 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of NKTR-102 in Patients With Metastatic or Locally Advanced Ovarian Cancer NCT00806156 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• A Study of Etirinotecan Pegol (NKTR-102) Versus Treatment of Physician's Choice (TPC) in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Stable Brain Metastases and Have Been Previously Treated With an Anthracycline, a Taxane, and Capecitabine NCT02915744 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• An Extension Study of NKTR-102 in Cancer Patients Previously Enrolled in NKTR-102 Studies NCT01457118 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1/2 Multicenter Dose Escalation and Expansion Study Of NKTR-214 In Subjects With Locally Advanced Or Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT02869295 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.