An Extension Study of NKTR-102 in Cancer Patients Previously Enrolled in NKTR-102 Studies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: canceradvancedreceivingtumorsadequate
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thesubjectssafety ofthe efficacylabel
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1/2 Multicenter Dose Escalation and Expansion Study Of NKTR-214 In Subjects With Locally Advanced Or Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT02869295 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of NKTR-102 in Patients With Metastatic or Locally Advanced Breast Cancer NCT00802945 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• A Dose Escalation and Cohort Expansion Study of NKTR-214 in Combination With Nivolumab and Other Anti-Cancer Therapies in Patients With Select Advanced Solid Tumors NCT02983045 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study of Etirinotecan Pegol (NKTR-102) Versus Treatment of Physician's Choice (TPC) in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Stable Brain Metastases and Have Been Previously Treated With an Anthracycline, a Taxane, and Capecitabine NCT02915744 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of NKTR-102 in Patients With Metastatic or Locally Advanced Ovarian Cancer NCT00806156 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.