A Dose Escalation and Cohort Expansion Study of NKTR-214 in Combination With Nivolumab and Other Anti-Cancer Therapies in Patients With Select Advanced Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 20 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastaticher2to determinedisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmay applycriteria maydefined inclusionprotocol defined
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1/2 Multicenter Dose Escalation and Expansion Study Of NKTR-214 In Subjects With Locally Advanced Or Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT02869295 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• REVEAL Study of NKTR-262 in Combination With NKTR-214 and Nivolumab in Patients With Locally Advanced / Metastatic Solid Tumor Malignancies NCT03435640 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• An Investigational Study of NKTR-214 Combined With Nivolumab in Japanese Participants With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03745807 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Bempegaldesleukin and Pembrolizumab With or Without Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT03138889 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Study of Surzebiclimab (BGB-A425) and Alcestobart (LBL-007) in Combination With Tislelizumab in Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03744468 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.