An Investigational Study of NKTR-214 Combined With Nivolumab in Japanese Participants With Advanced Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsmetastaticunresectablesurgeryradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluatesafetyclinical trialimmune
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 649 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 33894 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11278 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose Escalation and Cohort Expansion Study of NKTR-214 in Combination With Nivolumab and Other Anti-Cancer Therapies in Patients With Select Advanced Solid Tumors NCT02983045 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986205 Given in Combination With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Tumors NCT03192943 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Dose Escalation and Combination Immunotherapy Study to Evaluate BMS-986226 Alone or in Combination With Nivolumab or Ipilimumab in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03251924 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of Experimental Medication BMS-986179 Given Alone and in Combination With Nivolumab NCT02754141 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immunotherapy Study of BMS-986258 Alone and in Combination With Nivolumab in Participants With Solid Cancers That Are Advanced or Have Spread NCT03446040 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.