Phase I/IIa Trial to Investigate BI 6727 (Volasertib) as Monotherapy or in Combination With Cytarabine in Acute Myeloid Leukaemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: amlgreaterpatientulnpatients
  Phrases that lowered it: trialmalerelevantfemalesafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 173 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 15 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 80 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• BI 811283 in Combination With Cytarabine in Previously Untreated AML Ineligible for Intensive Treatment NCT00632749 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• BI 836858 Dose Escalation in Patients With Refractory or Relapsed Acute Myeloid Leukemia and in Patients With AML in Complete Remission With High Risk to Relapse NCT01690624 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Find and Investigate a Safe Dose of BI 836858 in Combination With Decitabine for Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) NCT02632721 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• BI836826 Dose Escalation in Relapsed Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia (CLL) NCT01296932 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Idasanutlin in Combination With Cytarabine and Daunorubicin in Patients Newly Diagnosed With Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) and the Safety and Efficacy of Idasanutlin in the Maintenance of First AML Complete Remission NCT03850535 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.